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European Politics Online Workshop (EPOW) - Shared screen with speaker view
Fernandez Vazquez, Pablo Alberto
Good afternoon/morning to everyone!
Seth Jolly
If you have comments, feel free to use the raise hand feature or ask in chat.
Tom Savidge
Good afternoon/morning everyone! I have a question: While the EU is not facing a "Hamilton moment," can it be compared to the American state debt crises of the 1830s? The federal government did not take on state debt and several states defaulted on their debt?
Tom Savidge
Please omit that second question mark, my mistake!
David Cleeton
I think Eric has understated the role of the ECB in improving the balance sheets of several Member States. The asset purchase program has significantly lowered the borrowing cost spread and overall level of rates. This means the overall budgetary cost of debt has been significantly lower than it would have been without this policy intervention.
David Cleeton
It will be quite sometime before we know the comparative incidence of the mutualized stimulus plan. In a financial framework we will need to know the dynamics of the cash inflows and outflows projected for individual Member States and then engage in an exercise to calculate the Net Present Value of the stream, perhaps normalized by the size of each country's GDP.
Tom Savidge
Thank you!
Pepijn Bergsen
Hi all, thanks for the great introductions. I agree that the recovery fund is critical to sustain EU support in the south, but also that the actual fund will have a limited economic impact. Under the current proposal it’s probably just over 1% of GDP per year for Italy, which is unlikely to be enough given that the Italian economy is likely to still be operating below its 2019 level in two years’ time. How do you assess the risk of a disappointing recovery leading to political trouble down the line even with Next Generation EU in place?
David Attewell
I'd like to ask the panelists to elaborate a bit more on what they think explains the shift of Germany's perspective on grants away from its moral hazard frame of the 2010s and towards the French position. And to pursue Catherine's point further, how fundamental of a shift is this really?
Vihar Georgiev
If push comes to shove and sombre IMF forecasts become reality, what would the "frugal four" plan to do? Do they think that they could somehow save themselves unilaterally?
Nikitas Konstantinidis
Could you elaborate more on the proposed institutional frameworks for the disbursement of recovery funds? Will it mostly depend on whether they come with strings attached or not? What role is the EP expected to play? Do you envision this as a potential watershed moment in the democratization of the EU?
Aidan Regan
What do the panel think about the idea of the ECB and member-states implementing a dual-interest rate policy? This would satisfy the political tensions between north and south. It would allow banks to keep a higher interest rate for domestic savings on bank deposits, and a different interest rate for lending.
Aidan Regan
*mitigate the tensions
Miguel Otero
My sense is that there is "reform momentum" both in Italy and Spain. I think this is something to consider on the "up side"...
Dan Kelemen
On Nikitas Konstantinidis’ question - noteworthy that European Parliament is saying it wants more say: https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article/parliament-should-have-say-on-750bn-recovery-plan-implementation-say-meps
How could Italy's decision to access the ESM affect the negotiations for Next Generation EU? Would it have no consequences or could it play a role?
Dan Kelemen
ironically, Poland - which flouts EU values and didn’t suffer much from cover - will do nearly as well out of recovery funds as Italy: “The Polish economy has been one of the least affected by the coronavirus crisis and Warsaw has faced heavy criticism over its approach to the rule of law but estimates suggest Poland will still only be behind Spain as the major winner from the rescue fund.” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/29/poland-should-get-less-from-covid-19-fund-due-to-rights-record-claim-eu-member-states
Dan Kelemen
covid, not ‘cover’ - spell correct
Pablo Fernandez-Vazquez
Thank you very much to Seth and the panelists! It was a joy to listen to you
Jonathon Moses
Thanks to the panel for a very interesting discussion.
David Attewell
Thanks to all the panelists for their insightful discussion!
Paul Kubicek
Thank you to all--very informative
Catherine De Vries
Thanks for joining everyone!
Dan Kelemen
thanks for organizing!!
Matthew Stenberg
Björn Bremer
Thanks a lot to everyone!